The Portland Trail Blazers and the Open Secret of Toumani Walker

While Camara shoots 25% overall from three to Walker’s 24%, he is making non-corner threes at a clip of 31% whereas Walker makes them at 19%. Conversely, Camara’s corner three is not falling worth a damn at 14% whereas Walker makes them at 30%. Moreover, one-fifth of Camara’s shots come in the short midrange, often from broken plays or closeouts, but he only makes them at a 12% clip. This makes Walker’s 42% from the short midrange look like a cornucopia of points, especially when you consider they comprise a quarter of all his field goal attempts.

Still, Camara has scored in double figures multiple times this season and always makes a consistent impact despite shooting numbers. He’s even more switchable than Walker, always finding ways under the opposition’s skin. He’s locked up Scottie Barnes, Cade Cunningham and Desmond Bane this season, to name a few names. Against the Clippers, Camara made two absolutely clutch defensive plays down the stretch, blocking a James Harden layup and drawing a charge on Leonard.

Portland Trail Blazers: Stats Deep Dive

And while the Blazers’ rookies might not shoot well, but that doesn’t mean opponents will either. They are 17^th in the league for defensive rating (114.9). The high mark derives from the Blazers having the sixth worst pace in the league (97.8) and holding opponents to the league’s second best mark of 33.8% from behind the arc.

Much ado about these stats being hard to replicate every game, but they’re the only indicators why the Blazers have found themselves in more games than not. Luka Doncic was looking to put away the game in Portland with a three and every time he sought it the Blazers contested it. The Mavericks may have got the win, but they sought that highlight and the Blazers didn’t give it to them.

They make the bet that if they can run teams off the line, then they can beat them by grinding for rebounds, deflections, loose balls and steals. Camara and Walker’s work means the Blazers are fifth in second chance points (16.3) and fourth in points off turnovers (18.6). Active hands from Camara, Walker, Thybulle and Ayton have led to nine steals per game and forcing 16.9 turnovers per game. Both good for top marks in the league.

Portland Trail Blazers: There Are Problems

Here’s the problem: they give nine steals right back and average 16 turnovers themselves. So when they make this bet and hedge their risk, they look like a veteran squad grinding out a win. But when they make this bet without hedging their risk, as they often do in the rush of transition plays, they end up look like a youth team over excited for the moment.

Doncic would have found plenty more daggers in the paint, anyways. The Blazers are miserable in points in the paint, averaging 43.9 and giving up 55.9 per game, for the season. Against the Mavericks, the Blazers scored 30, gave up 62. They also played at a pace of 103, way above their average (the Indiana Pacers lead the league at 104.2).

And what happens when opponents actually shoot well? Well, the beating from Oklahoma City was enough of an answer. Part of this is a function of youth, but another function is just sloppy passes, offensive fouls and tactical errors. The best example of their inconsistency came in the last minute against the Warriors.

Portland Trail Blazers: Rookie Mistakes

Down one, the Blazers played perfect defense to force a kickout pass from Stephen Curry to Andrew Wiggins in the corner from Stephen Curry. Wiggins attempted an awkward hook shot off a curling drive and missed with Camara contesting the entire way, then snagging rebound. Trying to keep the ball safe in a crowd, however, Camara lost his balance before panic passing into a live ball turnover as he fell out of bounds. Curry found the ball again, switched on to Simons and called his own number from three. Ballgame.

Camara could have called timeout. He didn’t. His teammates could have called timeout. They didn’t. Coach Billups could have called timeout. He didn’t. The Blazers had two timeouts at the time of the rebound and Camara fell precisely as the entire bench was staring at him. These are the kind of tactical errors that show the inexperience among the starter, reserve and coaching staff.

More importantly, it’s indicative of what it is like to watch the Trail Blazers: superb defense, followed by pure spectacle. Often it ends in spectacular failure, but every once in a while the seas part. A fast-break run to perfection, a wide open three pointer, a high-flying dunk.

When the Blazers realize this, they realize the secrets of Toumani Walker.