Could Falcons replace Kirk Cousins with Michael Penix Jr. in 2025?

Bill Barnwell of ESPN addressed whether the Atlanta Falcons could move on from veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins and start 2024 first-round draft pick Michael Penix Jr. as soon as 2025. 

"If Cousins agrees to a trade, it would be easy," Barnwell explained. "Atlanta would actually save $2.5M as part of that deal, and while it would have paid him $62.5M for one year of work, it wouldn't be on the hook for the remaining $37.5M in guarantees. The Falcons would have $37.5M in dead money on their cap, but we've seen teams grown more comfortable eating that sort of dead money if they're ready to move on from a quarterback." 

Specifically, the Denver Broncos ate the largest dead cap hit in NFL history to part ways with quarterback Russell Wilson in March. While it now seems the working relationship between Wilson and Denver head coach Sean Payton was damaged beyond repair, it's unknown how Cousins will react to Atlanta making Penix the eighth pick of the 2024 draft. 

The Falcons signed Cousins to a four-year, $180M contract that included $100M guaranteed back in March. Atlanta can escape that deal after the 2025 season, but Barnwell mentioned that "cutting Cousins after 2024 would be more difficult to swallow" for the organization. 

"The Falcons would be on the hook for $27.5M guaranteed in 2025 and basically be paying him to play for the minimum elsewhere, as Russell Wilson is now doing in Pittsburgh," Barnwell continued. "They would get out of the $10M commitment for 2026, but in addition to spreading $65M in dead money over two years, they would have paid Cousins $90M for one year of football as a lame-duck signal-caller."

Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot insisted in late April he'd be comfortable with Penix serving as a backup for "four or five years." The quarterback, who turned 24 years old on May 8, likely views the situation differently but has little say about his spot on the depth chart this spring.

Fontenot and company understandably hope Cousins will play well and want to stick around through at least February 2026, but the fact that individuals such as Barnwell are already touching upon how Cousins and the Falcons could want a divorce next winter generates more questions than answers regarding the club's drafting of Penix.